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Worst 25 Forecast Markets in 2009
The deflationary spiral in housing markets that started nearly four years ago is accelerating in most of the Worst 25 Housing Markets selected by Housing Predictor in 2009.
The crash on Wall Street and job layoffs are impacting condo and apartment prices in Manhattan, sending New York City to the # 1 position on the Housing Predictor Worst Forecast list.
The fallout from the financial crisis is deflating home prices just about everywhere. Las Vegas, Nevada suffering from the highest number of foreclosures in the nation is still reeling from housing deflation, and now places # 2 behind Manhattan.
There's no shortage of markets that will sustain double-digit declines in housing vales in 2009 as the credit crisis widens to include many more areas of the U.S. Miami, Florida went through the biggest real estate boom in its history before the bottom fell out, mainly because of a condo market that saw more units built in a five year period than ever before in the Magic City’s history.
The epidemic of foreclosures is hurting markets especially hard in California, which placed more markets on the list than any other state. Nearly two years ago, Housing Predictor forecast that home values would average total deflation from 50 to 70% depending on what markets. Now it appears that some areas will suffer total deflation in excess of 75% on average home values from the markets peak.
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| Rank |
Real Estate Market |
2009 Forecast |
| 1. |
New York City, NY |
− 32.8% |
| 2. |
Las Vegas, NV |
− 27.1% |
| 3. |
Miami , FL |
− 26.9% |
| 4. |
Stockton, CA |
− 26.4% |
| 5. |
Phoenix, AZ |
− 25.9% |
| 6. |
Detroit, MI |
− 25.2% |
| 7. |
Fresno, CA |
− 23.1% |
| 8. |
Long Island, NY |
− 22.7% |
| 9. |
Riverside, CA |
− 21.2% |
| 10. |
Los Angeles, CA |
− 20.1% |
| 11. |
Anaheim, CA |
− 19.3% |
| 12. |
Bakersfield, CA |
− 19.3% |
| 13. |
San Jose, CA |
− 19.2% |
| 14. |
Oakland, CA |
− 18.2% |
| 15. |
Reno, NV |
− 17.9% |
| 16. |
Scottsdale, AZ |
− 17.8% |
| 17. |
San Francisco, CA |
− 17.6% |
| 18. |
Seattle, WA |
− 17.4% |
| 19. |
San Diego, CA |
− 17.3% |
| 20. |
Glen Falls, NY |
− 16.9% |
| 21. |
Boston, MA |
− 16.8% |
| 22. |
Lansing, MI |
− 16.5% |
| 23. |
Atlanta, GA |
− 16.1% |
| 24. |
Portland, OR |
− 15.8% |
| 25. |
Sacramento, CA |
− 15.7% |
* The Worst 25 Markets are composed of cities that have the highest
probability of
reaching their forecast deflation in 2009 from the
more than 250 local markets Housing Predictor forecasts. |
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