Predictor Poll Results 2009
Survey Shows America Wants Claw-Backs
Apparently sick and tired of the way the U.S. government is handling the economy, more than 2 out of 3 surveyed say they want Congress to institute new laws to force corporate executives to return money they received as bonuses in the financial crisis, according to the latest Housing Predictor poll.
Some 67% want Congress to pass legislation requiring bankers, Corporate CEOs and other corporate executives to return the bonuses to help defray at least part of the cost of the U.S. financial crisis.
Banking lobbyists and lobbyists associated with the building and real estate industries have been fighting such proposals in Washington, D.C. However, faced with the worst recession since the Great Depression policymakers are holding a series of hearings to come up with solutions to the economic crisis, and in times of crisis elected government officials are called on to take actions that are unprecedented.
Do you feel Congress should pass legislation requiring bankers, Corporate CEOs and other Corporate Executives to return money they took in the form of bonuses as claw-backs to help defray at least part of the cost of the financial crisis?
Yes – 67% No – 33%
Government Doing Too Little
A large majority surveyed say the government is not doing enough to stop the U.S. economy from entering an economic depression, according to the latest Housing Predictor poll.
Some 62% said the government is doing too little for the nation to avert a depression, despite Washington, D.C. lawmakers approval of the $700-billion stimulus package, the Federal Reserve purchasing billions of dollars worth of toxic assets from banks and additional financial incentives made to other businesses, including the auto industry. More than a third or 38% said the government was doing enough to avert a depression.
The survey was conducted over three weeks, during which the Obama Administration said they under-estimated the magnitude of the financial crisis. More than 4.2-million homes have been foreclosed since the foreclosure epidemic started. Real estate is in its longest lasting deflationary cycle since the Great Depression.
The economic crisis started in the housing market, triggered by a tsunami of bad mortgages made by bankers and sold on Wall Street like commodities. Housing prices in the over-whelming majority of the country are deflating at record rates as a result as bankers get bailed-out by Congress in an effort to keep the economy out of a depression.
Do you think the U.S. government is doing enough to keep the nation from entering an economic depression?
Yes – 38% No – 62%
Majority Say Housing Prices Will Rebound
The nation’s financial crisis has triggered negative news in real estate, despite that a large majority surveyed say housing prices will rebound and reach record highs again. Nearly 2 out of 3 say they expect home prices to recoup their losses and reach the record highs accomplished during the real estate boom.
The survey indicates that consumers are more confident regarding real estate. Some 62% of those surveyed said they expect home prices to recover and hit record highs attained during the boom. Some 30% said prices would not reach the record highs again.
The character of real estate indicates housing price rebounds are common. However, housing analysts contend that if housing values do achieve the record high peaks again it will take at least a decade.
As foreclosure rates rise some particularly hard hit areas of the country have endured average housing deflation of 70% or more. The foreclosure epidemic, which is at the center of the nation’s economic crisis has resulted in more than 4.2-million foreclosures.
Do you feel housing prices will ever reach the record highs they hit at the peak of the market?
Yes – 62% No – 30% Not Sure – 8%
Majority Don’t Fear Foreclosure
In a positive sign for the U.S. housing market, a new survey indicates that the over-whelming majority of homeowners with mortgages don’t fear being foreclosed.
The Predictor Poll found that 81% of those surveyed are confident they will not be foreclosed on their homes or other property during the current economic crisis. Some 13% said they are afraid they’ll be foreclosed, while six percent said they had already experienced a foreclosure.
Rising unemployment, tighter credit standards and falling home values attribute to the nation’s foreclosure epidemic, which has broadened into conventional mortgage holders after starting with more risky subprime mortgages. The survey was conducted online over a three week period through May 17, during which Congress and the White House worked on new mortgage programs to fix the ailing housing market.
The Obama administration announced a new plan to expand its current mortgage aid program intended to provide help for homeowners to avoid foreclosure if they do not qualify for other assistance. The plan is an attempt to help stem the epidemic of foreclosures in communities and streamline the process for selling a home worth less than what is owed on a mortgage or make it easier for mortgage holders to transfer ownership back to lenders.
Programs have done little to help those at risk of foreclosure to hold on to their properties if they do not qualify for mortgage modifications. More than 4-million homeowners have been foreclosed so far in the worst foreclosure epidemic in U.S. history.
Have you been foreclosed or are you afraid of being foreclosed on your home or other property?
I have been through a foreclosure – 6% I am afraid of being foreclosed – 13% No – 81%
Enormous Deflation Expected
Nearly 1 out of 2 respondents to the latest Housing Predictor poll expect home prices to drop by more than 50% from the markets peak high as a result of the financial crisis.
With 52% of all respondents saying prices will fall more than half, the new online scientific survey shows that Americans are in touch with what is going on with the housing market as the foreclosure epidemic sweeps the nation. More than 4-million properties have been foreclosed since the financial crisis erupted, and another 3.6-million foreclosures are forecast through 2010 alone.
Some 48% of all those surveyed said they expect home values to drop less than half. Another 22% said they expect home values to by cut by 50% from the markets peak. Eleven percent expects prices to drop by 60% or more and another 11% said 70%, while just eight percent said values will drop 80% or more.
The survey is another indicator of the public’s growing understanding of the global financial melt down, which has slowed home sales, triggered increasing job cuts and contributed to a break down in economic stability throughout the world. Only ten markets are now forecast to appreciate at all in the U.S. in 2009.
How much do you expect home prices to fall from the peak?
Less than 50% – 48% 50% – 22% 60% – 11% 70% – 11% 80% or more – 8%
Gloomy Poll Shows Economic Depression Likely
Slightly more than 2 out of 3 surveyed believe the U.S. economy is headed for an economic depression, according to the latest Housing Predictor poll.
Some 68% surveyed said they expect the economy to wind up in a depression, which would equate to a long lasting economic downturn with lower housing values, lower stock values and higher unemployment. Nearly a third who responded to the opinion poll said they do not expect the economy to end up in a depression.
A similar poll taken last October found 67% of all those surveyed saying they believe the economy was going to end up in a depression. That survey was taken before President Barack Obama was elected to office, which shows that who the president is makes little difference to respondents.
The gloomy prediction does not mean that the U.S. will end up in an economic depression for sure, but indicates the public’s dislike for the lack of leadership to resolve the crisis.
Survey Shows Homeowners Will Walk
In a sweeping change of attitudes, more than 1 out of 3 homeowners’ surveyed say they’ll walk from their mortgages if housing prices continue to slide, according to a new Housing Predictor opinion poll.
The survey demonstrates major changes in the way Americans feel about the U.S. banking system and their own financial well being as a result of the credit crisis and the nation’s epidemic of foreclosures. Homeowners have historically felt responsible to fulfill contractual commitments made on mortgages, but that trend appears to be changing.
An estimated 4-million homes have been foreclosed since the start of the economic downturn, regarded as the worst financial disaster since the Great Depression sending millions out of work and record numbers to the welfare rolls.
Respondents to the survey are demonstrating they are fed-up with the way the economic downturn is affecting their lives. Some 36% said they would walk away from their homes if housing prices fall for a number of years. The majority or 64% said they would not walk away from their mortgages.
If real estate values continue to decline for a number of years, will you walk away from your mortgage?
Yes – 36% No – 64%
Majority Say Congress Will Fail
The over-whelming majority say Congress will not be able to act fast enough to help homeowners caught up in foreclosure, according to a new Housing Predictor survey. The poll clearly indicates that Americans have lost confidence in Congress’ ability to resolve the financial crisis.
The root of the nation’s economic problems is the foreclosure epidemic, which Housing Predictor forecast nearly two years ago. More than 3.4-million homes have been foreclosed since the economic crisis began, and at least another 3-million properties are forecast to be foreclosed in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. An estimated 200,000 properties are being foreclosed monthly.
A huge 83% of those surveyed said Congress will be unable to act fast enough to help homeowners threatened with foreclosure. The remaining 17% said Congress will be able to act fast enough to aid homeowners faced with foreclosure. The foreclosure epidemic is forecast to worsen in 2009 with more than 3-million adjustable rate mortgages resetting across the country, many of which will be unable to be refinanced under present guidelines as a result of lower home values.
Will Congress act fast enough to help homeowners faced with foreclosure?
No – 83% Yes – 17%
Confidence and Lower Home Prices Needed
All-time low consumer confidence will need to improve and home prices to fall further to re-stimulate the housing market, according to the latest Housing Predictor poll. The survey was conducted over the past three weeks, ending before Congress and the Obama Administration could agree on a rescue package for the nation’s economy.
Respondents were asked what they thought would stimulate the housing market the most. Some 36% said consumer confidence needs to be improved the most and a narrow 35% said it would take even lower housing prices. The combination of the two represent nearly 3 out of 4 surveyed in the online poll.
Another 14% said even lower mortgage rates were needed to re-stimulate the marketplace. Some nine percent said grant money for home buyers would help the ailing real estate market, while the remaining six percent said more tax incentives are needed to buy homes.
The survey was taken to gauge public opinion in the midst of the worst economic down turn since the Great Depression, triggered by falling home values and the credit crunch in the majority of the country. The Fed announced it will take more aggressive actions to aid many homeowners threatened with foreclosure. More than 3.4-million homes have already been foreclosed as a result of the economic crisis.
What do you think will stimulate the housing market the most?
Historic low interest rates – 14% Improved consumer confidence – 36% More tax incentives for home buyers – 6% Grant money for home buyers to subsidize down payments – 9% Even lower housing prices – 35%
How Low Will They Go
In an attempt to stimulate the stagnant housing market the Fed cut the prime lending rate very close to an historic low. Just how low do you expect the 30– year mortgage rate to drop was the question put to poll participants.
With 41% of the votes, the largest number of those surveyed said the 30–year mortgage rate will drop to 4.5% to give the housing market a much needed boost. Twenty–three percent think the magic number will be 4%. Nineteen percent of poll takers were very optimistic with a 3 to 3.5% rate and only 17% expect the rate to drop to 5% or higher.
The survey, which had one of the largest number of responses to date in the Housing Predictor poll, was conducted in the midst of the holiday season ending Jan 7, 2009.
After the Fed cut the prime rate to a near historic low, how low do you expect the thirty year mortgage rate to drop?
3% – 10% 3.5% – 9% 4% – 23% 4.5% – 41% 5% of higher – 17%
To see poll results from 2008 click here.