Predictor Poll Results 2008
How long will it take the national real estate economy to improve?
| 6 months |
– |
8% |
| 1 year |
– |
17% |
| 2 years |
– |
47% |
| Longer than 5 years |
– |
28% |
Survey Shows Optimism
The latest Housing Predictor survey shows consumers are optimistic about the national real estate economy with nearly 1 out of 2 respondents saying it will take just two years for the nation to pullout of the worst real estate depression in U.S. history.
The survey, which was taken over the first three weeks of June during the height of Congressional efforts to come up with a plan to help homeowners besieged by foreclosure, also indicates that many Americans may be out of touch with just how deeply the real estate crisis affects the overall economy.
Some 28% indicated the crisis will take more than five years to over come. Twenty-five percent polled said it would take 6 months to a year for conditions to improve.
However, since consumer sentiment is the most significant driving force behind residential real estate markets, the optimistic outlook may well be the strongest aspect of the markets return in strength in the future.
As a result of the mortgage crisis have you lost
confidence in lenders?
Mortgage Lenders Lose Confidence
A majority of those surveyed in the latest Housing Predictor poll say they have lost confidence in mortgage lenders as a result of the credit crisis.
The online survey indicates a massive change in the way American consumers regard banks and other lending institutions, displaying disapproval for the way mortgage lenders conducted themselves liberally making home loans to consumers with little regard to others, who their actions may affect. The freewheeling lending standards are at least partially to blame for the U.S. mortgage crisis, which has expanded to affect the nation’s overall economy.
At least three-quarters of all home mortgages made in the last decade were made with few lending regulations, triggering the worst foreclosure epidemic the nation has experienced.
Some 56 percent of those surveyed during the three-week poll said they had "lost confidence" in mortgage lenders, while 44% said they had not lost confidence in lenders. Rising adjustable rate mortgages, designed to fill a void in the public’s demand for more creative mortgage products and subprime loans made to those who would not have otherwise qualified by conventional lending standards along with aggressive Wall Street hedge funds filling the mortgages triggered the mortgage mess.
As a result, financial markets are still in chaos leaving many to ask how long it will take real estate markets to recover. Are you happy with your home?
Two out of three people surveyed say they are "happy" with their homes, according to the latest Housing Predictor poll, which was completed May 11th.
The online survey is particularly important given its timing and the fact that the U.S. is facing the worst real estate depression since the Great Depression. Record high foreclosures are being recorded across the nation, and few states are immune from the crisis.
However, the online survey shows that most people are "happy" with their living conditions. Some 67% of those surveyed during the three week period said they are "happy" with their homes, while just 33% or 1 out of 3 said they were not happy with their living environment.
Do you believe the U.S. Congress will be successful in solving the nation’s real estate crisis?
An over-whelming majority of those surveyed said they believe the U.S. Congress will fail in its attempt to solve the nation's real estate crisis. Some 81% of those surveyed online said they believe Congressional efforts will fail.
Only 19% said they believe Congress will be successful solving the crisis during the April survey, which ended April 21st after a two week period of sampling online. The survey received the largest number of votes since Housing Predictor started taking surveys more than a year and a half ago, demonstrating the public's anxiety over the nation's real estate crisis.
The disappointing results echo Americans declining confidence in their political system. A series of other Congressional debacles, including failures to deal with Social Security and immigration reform followed the disastrous outcome of the federal government’s handling of Hurricane Katrina.
When do you plan on buying real estate?
| Within 6 months |
– |
36% |
| Within 1 year |
– |
21% |
| Within 2 years |
– |
16% |
| More than 2 years |
– |
14% |
| More than 5 years |
– |
13% |
Plenty of Pent Up Buyer Demand
An amazing 73% of respondents said they were planning on buying real estate within at least 2 years, indicating there is plenty of demand for real estate on the part of potential buyers.
But the breakdown given the lengthy list of time lines is even more interesting. Some 36% plan on buying within the next 6 months, 21% within one year and 16% with a time frame of no more than 2 years. Fourteen percent said more than two years and 13% more than five years.
The survey was conducted during the month of March and ended April 7, 2008. Do you think the U.S. economy is headed for an economic depression?
Survey Shows Economic Depression Likely
The majority of Americans believe the U.S. economy is headed for an economic depression, according to a new Housing Predictor survey.
However, the poll shows Americans are far from decisive in their judgment of whether the nation’s economy will fall into a depression. Some 53% of those surveyed online say the economy is headed for a depression, while 47% believe the economy will not fall into a depression. The online survey was conducted during the month of February, ending the 22nd.
There have been six depressions in the U.S. since 1837, including the Great Depression of 1929 when the stock market crashed. Only an estimated five percent of all Americans believed the Great Depression would occur at the time, which indicates major economic turmoil is underway today.
The narrow six-percent difference may also indicate that Americans are divided on whether they believe the economy will fall into a depression. However, worsening economic conditions, including rising unemployment and higher grocery prices may attribute to the destabilization of the economy. The survey was conducted over a three week period providing enough time to be accepted by social scientific researchers as valid.
Housing deflation is taking place in the over-whelming majority of real estate markets in the U.S. with only 60 markets forecast to appreciate during the year by Housing Predictor. One hundred and ninety-one are forecast to deflate. However, more than two dozen local housing markets forecast to appreciate are presently under review and may be downgraded.
Yes – 53%
No – 47%
Troubled by the mortgage mess the majority of real estate markets in the U.S. are in at least a slowdown. How long do you think it will take for market conditions to improve?
Troubled by the mortgage mess more than two-thirds of those surveyed in the latest Housing Predictor poll say that it will take at least two years for the real estate market to improve.
A large majority of 68% said they believe it will take at least two years. Some even feel it will take longer for the housing market to improve, despite the Fed cutting interest rates.
The majority of real estate markets in the U.S. are in at least a slowdown, and many are in a real estate recession after years of record low interest rates and massive mortgage fraud along with a mortgage industry that provided more new creative financing for home mortgages than ever before in the nation’s history.
6 months – 10%
1 year – 23%
2 years – 31%
3 years – 15%
Longer than 3 years – 21%
|
