Long a driver of the Montana economy, the energy business is cutting jobs and idling oil and natural gas rigs. Exploration is being slashed because of lower commodity prices as the national financial crisis makes inroads to weaken Montana housing markets.
Montana is still doing better than most of the country in terms of home sales, but all the indications are there that home sales will continue to slow through the remainder of the year, despite the warmer spring and summer climate. Home sales have slowed just about every where in the state, and housing values are forecast to decline.
Montana was one of the last hold-outs in the nation's financial crisis. The state had one of the highest employment rates in the nation due to growth in the energy industry, but as natural gas companies curtail operations housing markets will feel the impact. Thousands who work in the energy fields are fleeing the state. However, comparatively fewer foreclosures in Montana will also act to soften the blow.
In Great Falls, home sales should remain active but slower than in the past. Great Falls like most of Montana has seen a growing population and is now forecast to deflate a marginal 3.7% in 2009, considerably less than the majority of housing markets in the country, which will see housing deflation at an average of 14.5% nationally.
 |
| City |
Forecast |
| Great Falls |
− 3.7% |
| Missoula |
− 4.5% |
| Billings |
− 3.4% |
| Bozeman |
− 2.8% |
| Livingston |
− 3.5% |
A vigorous expansion over the last 20 years has produced a growing business community in Missoula. But the national recession is putting a damper on Missoula. A sixth of the community's population now lives under the poverty line making it impossible for them to become homeowners. After 15 years of housing values going up, Missoula is forecast to deflate 4.5% for the year.
Montana has been largely isolated from national trends. There wasn't much subprime or creative financing offered during the nation's real estate boom in Montana with Alt A adjustable rate mortgages, which acted to at least protect the state's markets.
In Billings high end homes are being auctioned-off to the highest bidder. Leary of the market place, high end buyers have vanished and the construction of new homes has all but ceased. National trends have always taken a little longer to hit Montana and that's the way the housing slowdown is developing. The slower home sales will soften the market further the rest of the year on the way to a forecast average loss in home values of 3.4% in Billings.
Bozeman has one of the highest numbers of home businesses in the country with many of its residents tied to the development of the growing World Wide Web, and it's constantly rated as one of the most live-able cities in the country for entrepreneurs. With just under 50,000 residents, Bozeman offers amenities usually found in larger urban settings and plenty of year round outdoor activities. Bozeman's attraction should endure the economic downturn as housing sales turn sluggish with values forecast to decline just 2.8% through the year's end.
The bigger thaw in housing prices that some Montana residents wondered and worried about doesn't appear to have the footing to develop at least in 2009. However, the fall in home sales in Livingston is beginning to take hold, but that's still no big thing to people in Livingston, who are familiar with seasonal slowdowns. Housing Predictor forecasts a mild dip in home values for 2009 in Livingston of just 3.5%.
